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The earthquake of ☼ in the northwest of Georgia dated September 7, 2009 enters in SS Krasnodar Kray - Crimea, into which enter Abkhaziya and West Georgia. The trajectory of preparation started from middle of 1991 after Racha earthquake, but only by 2004 it entered into the attractor.

In Bulletin 001 were given the forecasts for the strong earthquakes in SS Krasnodar Kray - Crimea to the beginning December 2008. In the forecast for the strong earthquakes from М≥6.0 in particular it communicated: "...Potentially volatile region of Karachayevo-Cherkess AO on the meridian 41.5 degrees, from the border with the Krasnodar region to Abkhazia. Here in the next five years, the risk will migrate from north to south (close to meridian 42.5) and would be concentrated in the area Dombay - boundary region Karachay-Cherkessia (Russia) with Abkhazia and Georgia. Magnitude of potential earthquake M=6.3-6.4. Probability of strong earthquake in system 1% (on entropy 27%, and on cumulative energy 5%)...".

By December 2008, when we made a forecast, trajectory approached an unstable region on the track diagram, which corresponds to fatty broken region to Fig.1. Depending on seismic activations the trajectory within the next few years had to be located near this zone, migrating from the north to the southeast. In the recent months the trajectory approached the unstable area, which corresponds to zone A (Fig.1). The magnitude of earthquake was forecast according to the law of seismic entropy production for the zone of instability A: Ks=0.47W+7.39. By September entropy reached W=15.83, then Ks=14.8, which corresponds to the magnitude Ms=6.2. By September 2009 probability grew to 3% (on entropy 32%, and on cumulative energy 9%) (see Fig.2). On the basis of the method of seismic entropy it was possible since August until October to expect earthquake in the zone A from M=6.2. Then it had to migrate to the southeast. Is such correctness of forecast in this SS today.

The moderate earthquake from M=6.1 occurred on September 7, 2009 ☼ 100 km southeastern from the expected zone A (see Fig.1).

SS Krasnodar Kray - Crimea

III level (mediocre).
Length of 800 km.
Threshold magnitude 6.0.
Depth 55 km.
Monitoring since 2007.
Predicted quakes 0.

Large cities: Yalta, Simferopol', Krasnodar, Novorossiysk, Sochi, Kislovodsk, Sukhumi, Kutaisi.

Seismicity is caused by interaction of Arabia plate with the Eurasia plate and by Black Sea micro-plate as a result of which it occurs orogenesis in the western Caucasus and displacement to the West of Black Sea micro-plate.

Last devastating earthquake is Racha on April 29, 1991, M=6.4 (with the source in central Georgia, it perished 200 pep.).

Fig.1. Krasnodar Kray, Crimea, Abkhazia, West Georgia. Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥6.0. Fatty dotted line showed the unstable region, controlled on the track diagram. As the development of trajectory the instability migrated from the north to the southeast. In the recent months the track approached the zone A, where we expected the moderate earthquake from M=6.2. Earthquakes dated September 7, 2009, M=6.1, occurred 100 km southeastern.

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