Probability

Currently, the trajectory on the tracking chart is out of the attractor, it is in central Italy (from Calabria to Perugia), an earthquake with a magnitude Ms≥5.8 is not expected. Until 2015 in the system is not dangerous, but recall that during that time could be an indicator-earthquakes with a magnitude  5.4-5.7, which is also dangerous. Control of such earthquakes produce on a contractual basis. In the next few years in Central Italy are possible earthquake with a magnitude Ms = 5.0-5.2.

P_K=1%

P_W=0%

Р= 0%

The trajectory for tracking chart is the attractor, so the probability of earthquakes with a magnitude Ms≥5.8 in northern Italy (from Perugia to the Alps) high. Despite this, the situation in northern Italy in the Alps, in the south-east of France in western Slovenia is not dangerous. The instability, the M6.0 earthquake, now leaves the area Ancona - San Marino - Rimini and migrate north, toward Verona. By 2014, north of Verona will be prepared the M6.2 earthquake.

P_K=81%

P_W=82%

Р=66%

А.   Surface H<40 km

The situation in a dangerous, the trajectory is the attractor, there is a shortage of energy indicator-earthquakes. In the west-southwest Sicily expected earthquake with M~6.1, H<40 km. Most likely it will trigger an earthquake and in time will occur after the M5.6 earthquake in southern Italy. The probability of strong earthquake is very high, but not yet critical.

В.   Deep focus 250 km<H<350 km

The trajectory is in a zone of instability deep focus earthquakes H=250-350 km in SE of the Tyrrhenian Sea. The situation is dangerous - in south-eastern Tyrrhenian Sea expected strong earthquake with a magnitude Ms~6.8-7.0 with a depth of the epicenter 250-300 km, there are some shortages of energy indicator-earthquakes. It is likely that the earthquake will have a foreshock and over time will occur after an earthquake with M5.4-5.6 in southern Italy. Note that because of the large depth of focus expected earthquake, the biggest intensity on the surface can be III-IV ball, which is not dangerous and cannot cause damage and casualties. The danger of tsunami from this earthquake is also negligible (up to 10 cm). Theoretically danger of tsunami  from this earthquake may be the north-eastern of Sicily and the west coast of Calabria. Residents and guests of Sicily should monitor reports of earthquake in southern Italy with a magnitude 5.4-5.6, after which take precautions.

P_K=73%

P_W=96%

Р=70%

P_K=70%

P_W=83%

Р=58% 

Track of the preparation of strong earthquake with Ms ≥ 5.8 in central California (from Parkfield to Santa Rosa) it is located in the attractor. The situation is not yet dangerous, but very unstable. Trajectory is past under the zone of instability at fault Hayward and close to the zone of instability, located on the southern segment of fault Calaveras, near the junction zone with fault San Andreas. At the beginning 2009, the trajectory approach and will be held near the zone of instability in the fault Calaveras, in the area of articulation with fault San-Andreas. The zone will be dangerous from April to July 2009, there could be an earthquake with Ms=6.2. The area of impact of the earthquake caught the cities Hollister and Gilroy. If that does not happen, since the beginning of 2010 to March situation will be dangerous in the area of fault Roger Greek and NE from it - there will be prepared by an earthquake with M~6.3-6.6. There will be dangerous zone between the towns of Vallejo and Sonoma, and the city district Fairfield-Vacaville-Winters. At the San Andreas fault in the Central California ruled out a strong earthquake with Ms>5.8, at least until 2012. Until 2014, a strong earthquake with Ms≥7.5, for the likeness of the earthquake in 1906 in San Francisco, totally excluded. In the southern part of Central California, in the region of Parkfield, earthquake with Ms≥5.8 is not expected.

P_K=44%

P_W=55%

Р=24% 

А. The forecast disastrous earthquakes with Ms≥7.5 in Southern California, earthquakes in the likeness of 1857 in Fort Tejon, 1992 Landers, a lot of material losses and casualties. Track of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake has the high values of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes and a lack of entropy. This means that within the next few years, a large earthquake should not be expected to intensify and increase the entropy will be mostly static. In other words, the disastrous earthquake is energetically prepared, but time is not yet ripe. The probability of strong earthquake on the cumulative energy high and low on entropy. In Southern California, will be dangerous in 2014 on 2016 on the segment of San Andreas fault in Southern California (from Palmdale through San Bernardino to Riverside). By that time, be prepared earthquake with M=7.7-7.9. In the area of influence predicted earthquake hits Los Angeles. In the area of Los Angeles and San Diego, at least until 2014, a strong earthquake with Ms≥7.5 is excluded. However, residents and visitors of California, it must be remembered that there could be a moderate earthquake forces, also causing destruction and casualties.

В. The forecast earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.5 in Southern California. Before the 2014 earthquake with a 6.3<M<7.5 is not expected. Potentially dangerous to be after 2015 segment of Coyote  Greek Fault. In Southern California before 2014 are expected earthquake with M= 5.2-5.8. The earthquake of 29 July 2008, a M5.4 east of Los Angeles was one of them.

P_K=12%

P_W=1%

Р=0.1% 

 P_K=1%

P_W=27%

Р=0.2%

The trajectory of preparing a strong earthquake with Ms≥7.7 is the attractor, but the situation is not yet dangerous. Trajectory approaches the zone of instability, located west of Portugal (250-500 kilometers) at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean. From January to March 2009 south-west of Lisbon, at a distance of 300 km in the ocean can occur strong earthquake with M=8.0. Then the danger will be removed from Portugal and migrate to the west by 500 km. There may have earthquakes with M=8.1-8.2. The final date of implementation of oceanic earthquake mid-2015. These earthquakes are dangerous because they can form a wave of the tsunami from 5 to 10 m. Much uncertainty associated with the prediction that the tectonic process is relatively slow. In the next two years, a strong earthquake with a 6.4 <M <7.6 are not expected. For the population of coastal cities of Portugal and Morocco forecast earthquakes are dangerous only in terms of their tsunami waves.

P_K=86%

P_W=83%

Р=71%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected, the situation is not dangerous. The trajectory is outside the attractor, the probability of an earthquake equal to zero. For people and tourists a favorable situation for at least the next two years. All resorts Morocco, Western and SW Spain, Portugal seismically safe from earthquakes with Ms≥6.2, causing major damage and casualties. It will be recalled that the Atlantic Ocean coastal cities of these countries may be subject to tsunamis from the ocean earthquakes (see Predictions AZORES ...).

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected, the situation is not dangerous. The trajectory is outside the attractor, the probability of an earthquake equal to zero. For people and tourists a favorable situation for at least the next two years. All resorts SE Spanish island Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza seismically safe from earthquakes with Ms≥6.2, causing major damage and casualties. Recall that coastal earthquake in northern Algeria could bring (up to 2 meters) waves of the tsunami on the southern shores of resort islands of Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza! Such waves can cause damage to yachts, boats in the coastal sites of the islands.

P_K=2%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

Seismic situation in the Armenian uplands very dangerous. It is expected the catastrophic earthquake in eastern Turkey with a magnitude Ms≥7.4. The final date of implementation in 2010. There may be one of two scenarios. The first - an earthquake could occur south of Mount Ararat at fault SE-NW stretch with Ms=7.4-7.5 (70 km South-SW of the city Yerevan). In the destructive impact of the earthquake zone gets all the Ararat Valley of Armenia (Yerevan, Oktemberyan, NPP, Echmiadzin, Artashat, etc.) where the intensity of exposure may be as high as VII-VIII balls. More intense exposure is expected to Turkish territory VIII-X balls (city Karakese, Tuzludzha, Igdir, Dogubayazet, Diyadin). The second - in eastern North Anatolian fault near the city of Erzincan with Ms=7.8-7.9. In the destructive impact zone in Turkey are the city of Erzincan, Refahiye, Pyulyumur and surrounding villages. In this case, Armenia is not threatened. The probability of the first scenario, over time diminish, and second to increase. Uncertainty in space and time associated with that area of instability of the historical Ararat earthquake on July 2, 1840 determined insecure! For the population - an unfavorable situation in eastern Turkey in the coming years.

P_K=95%

P_W=98%

Р=94%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not yet expected, since there was a deficit of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes, but the situation is very unstable. The trajectory is the attractor, but below the zone of instability. The probability of an earthquake on entropy is high, and the cumulative energy is small. The making more active of those moderat earthquakes with a 5.0<M<5.6 within the next few years is expected. The making more active of such indicator-earthquakes can initiate earthquakes with M=6.3 in southern Georgia. In 2009, the volatile situation will be near Rustavi (Georgia). Depending on future seismic revitalize potentially dangerous south of Armenia and Karabakh.

P_K=3%

P_W=30%

Р=1%

An earthquake with Ms≥6.2 is expected in coastal areas of the Caspian Sea. The trajectory is the attractor. By the end of January 2009, dangerous coastal areas to Azerbaijan in the Caspian Sea. The probability of an earthquake here with a focal depth of 40 km quite high, but there are some shortages of energy idicator-earthquakes. If during this time will not happen earthquake with M=6.2, the temporary system will go into steady state, but the danger in the system will be localized here in the next 2-3 years. The last date of implementation of the earthquake end of 2011. In any case, such an earthquake would not pose a danger to the public.

P_K=37%

P_W=35%

Р=12%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected. The probability of an earthquake on entropy is high, and the cumulative energy zero. Pending an earthquake with M=5.0-5.3 does not pose a safety hazard. At Apsheronian peninsula (Azerbaijan) seismically safe. Potentially dangerous in the central Caspian Sea by the end of 2009 may be close to Turkmenistan (M6.3). Residents of Baku and other Human Settlements Apsheronian peninsula strong earthquake with Ms≥6.2 is not threatened.

P_K=0%

P_W=22%

Р=0%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.0 is not expected, since there was a cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes deficit. The trajectory is the attractor. The probability of an earthquake on entropy is high, and the cumulative energy is small. In the coming years is expected to intensifying indicator-earthquakes (5.0<M<5.5) within the system. Potentially volatile region of Karachayevo-Cherkess AO on the meridian 41.5 degrees, from the border with the Krasnodar region to Abkhazia. Here in the next five years, the risk will migrate from north to south (close to meridian 42.5) and would be concentrated in the area Dombay - boundary region Karachay-Cherkessia (Russia) with Abkhazia and Georgia. Magnitude of potential earthquake M=6.3-6.4. Crimea is not dangerous. Residents and tourists in Crimea in the coming years may be quiet - seismic hazard they are not threatened. In the Black Sea cost (Krasnodar region, Abkhazia) and at resorts Kislovodsk, Pyatigorsk, Essentuki seismic situation is favorable, yet strong earthquake with Ms≥6.0 does not threaten them.

P_K=5%

P_W=27%

Р=1%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected. Seismic safety situation. Pending an earthquake with M=5.0-5.2 does not pose a safety hazard. Potentially dangerous zone NE from Turkmenbashi to 2014 (M6.2). Residents of the cities of Turkmenbashi, Nebitdag, Gumdag of Turkmenistan and others in the area controlled by a strong earthquake with Ms≥6.2 is not threatened.

P_K=5%

P_W=6%

Р=0.3%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected. Seismic situation is safe, but unstable. There is a shortage of energy indicator-earthquakes. Pending an earthquake with M=5.5-6.0. In the area of Urmia lake possible with the M5.6 earthquake. In the first half of 2009 will be potentially dangerous in the south-west of the Caspian Sea near the city of Ardabil (M6.0-6.2).

P_K=0%

P_W=6%

Р=0%

Earthquakes with Ms ≥ 6.2 is not expected. Seismic safety situation. There is a shortage of energy indicator-earthquakes. In the coming years are expected earthquake with M=5.0-5.5 does not pose a safety hazard. Potentially dangerous in the eastern province of Mazandaran (M6.3) by 2012. Residents NE of Iran in the controlled zone, the capitals Tehran and Ashgabat strong earthquake with Ms≥6.2 is not yet threatened.

P_K=1%

P_W=6%

Р=0%

А. Forecast Ms≥6.6. Preparing an earthquake with Ms=6.7 in southern Iran. In the first half of 2010 will be dangerous in southern Iran in the border areas of provinces of Hormozgan and Fars. It expected strong earthquake with M=6.7, the expected maximum intensity of the seismic impact IX balls. Now the likelihood of earthquakes on the entropy is low, and on the cumulative energy is high. There is a shortage of energy indicator-earthquakes. In the provinces of Bushehr, Khuzestan, Ilam, Kermanshah, Lorestan, central-north of Fars strong earthquake with Ms≥6.6 is not expected, but possible earthquakes with M~6.2.

В. Forecast Ms≥6.2. In the second half of 2009 will be dangerous in the area of 100-150 km north-west of Shiraz (M6.2). The probability of an earthquake there is already high.

In the United Arab Emirates a strong earthquake is not expected. Residents and tourists of Dubai and Abu Dhabi seismic no threat.

P_K=60%

P_W=4%

Р=2%

P_K=64%

P_W=39%

Р=25%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.7 expected. In March-April-May 2009 will be dangerous in central Iran, province of Khorasan. They expected a strong earthquake with M=7.4, H=33 km, is expected to provide maximum intensity of the seismic impact IX balls. To implement this earthquake there is some deficit of the energy of indicator-earthquakes equal energy earthquake with a magnitude 5.8. This means that an earthquake is likely to happen if an earthquake occurs in the system with M=5.8. Over the next 3 years in the system seismic risk for earthquakes with Ms≥6.7, will be localized in the central Khorasan. Potentially dangerous zone in the south-east Iran in Baluchistan near the border with Pakistan (M7.1) in 2011. Earthquakes moderate forces with 5.8<M<6.7 is also of great danger to the public, but the system we did not anticipate. When Earthquake in Central Khorasan may be adversely affected residents of small villages. Noted that a similar earthquake in 1978 claimed the lives of 18,220 people. The province of Kerman since late 2009, the risk will be localized near the Bama.

P_K=65%

P_W=73%

Р=47%

А. The forecast earthquakes with Ms ≥ 6.4. Earthquakes with Ms≥6.4 is not expected. In the coming years will be on Sakhalin earthquake lull, the system can only take place earthquakes with M<5.5. The probability of strong earthquake on Sakhalin on the entropy is low, and on the cumulative energy is high. There is a glut of the isolated seismic energy of indicator-earthquakes and a scarcity of entropy. Such a situation arose after Nevelsk earthquake on Sakhalin Island on 2 August 2007, Ms=6.2, which we reckon to the indicator-earthquake. This means that the next strong earthquake with Ms>6.4 Sakhalin much away in time. Today such earthquake in Sakhalin is excluded in the next decade (until 2018).  

В. The forecast earthquakes with 5.5<Ms<6.4. Earthquakes of the moderate force with 5.5<M<6.4 within the next few years they are not expected in Sakhalin (such as the Nevelsk earthquake). Probability of such earthquake on the north of Sakhalin 0.1%, in the center section also in south 0%.

On the basis of the method of seismic entropy, it is retrospective, we analyzed the possibility of the forecast of the Nevelsk earthquake. This earthquake was forecasted in the subsystems, which, according to our classification, add to those badly determined (IV) . Nevertheless, before this event, the probability of earthquake with 5.8<M<6.2 on the north of Sakhalin it was equal to zero, in Central and South Sakhalin it was 5%  (on entropy 29%, and on cumulative energy 17%), and in South Sakhalin respectively 11% (28%, 40%). Hierarchical approach makes it possible to forecast retrospectively it.

P_K=78%

P_W=32%

Р=25%

P_K=1%

P_W=9%

Р=0.1%

Earthquakes with Мs≥7.5 is not expected. SS Koryak it relates to the systems, where in the historical past strong earthquake was not observed or there was not a information about them. In such cases for the analysis of the zones of instability on the energy and track diagrams we draw information about zones of the instability of close ones in the threshold magnitude and tectonics of seismic systems from other regions (it is utilized the property of self-similarity SS). In particular, for Koryak we used information from the seismic systems of Turkmenistan and South California. We thus far here have a realization only of one strong earthquake - Koryak, 20.04.2006, M7.8.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Ms≥7.8. Earthquakes with Ms≥7.8 is not expected. Trajectory is located under the attractor (a zone of instability). The probability of strong earthquake on the entropy is small, but cumulatively energy relatively high. There is a shortage of energy indicator-earthquakes. The trajectory tends to rise, which means that in coming years are expected indicator-earthquakes with 5.5<M<6.9. Potentially dangerous is the coastal zone in the area of Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky (M8.4) in 2015 and coastal zone in the area of Ust Kamchatsk (M7.9) by 2018, the depths to 30 km.

В. Forecast earthquakes with Ms≥6.9. Earthquakes moderate forces with 6.9<M<7.5 are expected. To the north of Kamchatka trajectory has some deficit of the isolated energy of indicator-earthquakes. The situation is precarious. The probability of an earthquake in the north on entropy 83% and on cumulative energy 67%. In the coming years may M6.9 earthquake (potentially dangerous zone removed from the peninsula at 100-150 km). For the South Kamchatka trajectory is in the ocean zone of instability, located south-east of Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky. In coming years there may M6.9 earthquake. Probability of earthquakes on entropy 67% and on cumulative energy 59%.

P_K=17%

P_W=10%

Р=2%

North

P_K=67%

P_W=83%

Р=56%

South

P_K=59%

P_W=67%

Р=40%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.9 is not expected. The trajectory is outside the attractor (zone of instability). The probability of strong earthquake in the system 0%. Strong earthquake in the system does not have a danger to residents because the nearest island of Simushir Kuril ridge uninhabitable.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

Earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.8 is not expected. The trajectory is the attractor, but there is a shortage of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes. In the coming years will be an earthquake of 6.0<M<7.0, possible earthquake with M up to 7.3. Earthquake indicator of September 11, 2008, M6.9 was one of them. Potential hazards of the zone in the south-east of Hokkaido and east of Iturup. Here, in the intensifying earthquakes indicator, only by 2012 could be dangerous M8.2 and depth of the epicenter to 45 km. Recall that the earthquake with 5.5<M<7.8 in the system are not controlled. Residents of Hokkaido and the South Kurile islands can be calm, while the risk of strong earthquakes with Ms≥7.4, which can cause noticeable damage and destruction, they are not threatened.

P_K=7%

P_W=19%

Р=1%

Earthquakes with Ms≥7.8 is not expected. The nearest potentially dangerous zone of instability (M8.1) is located in area of the historical earthquake Fukushima Oki 1938. The trajectory will reach thise zone by March 2009 on entropy, but so far there is a deficit of cumulative energy. In order to hit the track in this area until March, the system must be an earthquake with a magnitude 6.5 and 7.4, which will complete the deficit of cumulative energy. Recall that in the south, south-western Japan SS in this seismic cycle strong earthquake (M>7.8) is excluded.

P_K=67%

P_W=64%

Р=42%

A. Forecast earthquakes with Ms≥7.0. Earthquakes with Ms≥7.0 is not expected. The probability of earthquakes is high, on the entropy 54%, on the cumulative energy 56%, but the situation in the region of Tokyo sustained.

B. Forecast earthquakes with 6.8≤Ms<7.0. There are some shortages energy of indicator-earthquakes. Surrounding 6 months it is dangerous near Idzu peninsula and the north-west of Tokyo (M6.8). The probability of earthquakes on the entropy is high 70%, on cumulative energy 56%. In the west central Honshu, on the coast of the Japan Sea earthquakes with M>6.4 is not expected. Their likelihood is zero.

P_K=56%

P_W=54%

Р=30%

P_K=56%

P_W=70%

Р=40%

Forecast earthquakes with Ms≥6.6. Potentially dangerous in the area of the Japanese trenches south-east of Iwaki. There can be prepared with the M7.4 earthquake that could trigger for strong earthquake Fukushima Oki M8.1. The probability of such an earthquake on the entropy 64%, on the cumulative energy 80%. Strong earthquake with a 6.8<M<7.4 is not yet expected. In the west of northern Honshu, on the shores of the Japan Sea earthquakes with M>6.8 is not expected.

P_K=80%

P_W=64%

Р=51%

Earthquakes with Ms≥7.4 is not expected. The probability of an earthquake with Ms≥7.4 on the entropy 30%, on the cumulative energy 12%. In the area of Nankai through, the island land faults Median Tectonic Line, to stretched across the island of Shikoku to Osaka, the earthquake like Kobe (1995) and stronger with 6.8<M<7.4 is not expected. The probability of earthquakes is zero. On the shores of the Japan Sea a strong earthquake is not expected.
In 2009, it will be very dangerous in the south-east of the Kyushu island. Here, not far from the shore occurs preparation earthquake M6.8. The probability of such an earthquake on the entropy 80%, on cumulative energy 66%.

P_K=12%

P_W=30%

Р=4%

P_K=66%

P_W=80%

Р=53%

The situation in the system is not yet dangerous. The trajectory is the attractor. A strong earthquake with Ms>7.7 excluded in the system until 2010. If seismic intensifying visible in the system will not, by mid-2010, will be dangerous in the east of Taiwan, in the coastal area near the city of Hualien. There will be drawn strong earthquake with a magnitude Ms=7.9 and a focal depth 33 km. The probability of strong earthquake on the entropy 25% and on the cumulative energy 46%.

P_K=46%

P_W=25%

Р=12%

The situation is dangerous, expected earthquakes 7.0≤Ms<7.7. By the end of February 2009 is expected strong earthquake in the ocean with M7.4, south-east of Taiwan at 100-150 km, and by mid-2010, potentially dangerous may be in the ocean east of the island at 100-150 km M7.2. The probability of strong earthquake with 7.3 ≤Ms<7.7 on the entropy 48% and on the cumulative energy 53%.

The probability of strong earthquake with 7.0≤Ms<7.3 on the entropy 13% and on the cumulative energy 26%. These oceanic earthquake with a 7.0≤Ms<7.7 for the people of Taiwan do not represent a direct danger, but they can occur tsunami waves.   

P_K=53%

P_W=48%

Р=25%

P_K=26%

P_W=13%

Р=3%

The situation in the system are not dangerous, but the trajectory is the attractor. A strong earthquake with Ms=8.5 is expected by mid-2011 in the Andaman Islands, Port Blair, India. The probability of strong earthquake on the entropy 30% and on the cumulative energy 48%. Residents of the coastal countries of the north Indian Ocean in the coming years (until 2011) a catastrophic earthquake, like the Nicobar 2004, as well as strong earthquake with Ms>7.8 and tsunamis do not threaten, but may be equally dangerous moderate earthquake with Ms<7.8 (see Forecast of Myanmar).

P_K=48%

P_W=30%

Р=14%

The situation in the system unsustainable. There is a relative shortage of energy indicator-earthquakes. If in the system will be a revitalization of indicator-earthquakes, the track could get into a zone of instability of strong earthquakes on the north-western tip of Sumatra, where the M7.3 earthquake could occur in 2009. The probability of strong earthquake on the entropy 18% and on the cumulative energy 35%. Residents of the coastal countries of the north Indian Ocean Myanmar, Thailand and Andaman-Nicobar Islands in the coming years strong earthquake with 7.0≤Ms<7.8 and tsunamis do not threaten. But for residents NW of Sumatra, in disadvantaged circumstances, the situation can become dangerous already in 2009.

P_K=31%

P_W=18%

Р=6%

The situation in the system unsustainable. Preparations are under way for a strong earthquake with Ms>7.8. The probability of entropy equal to 8% and on the cumulative energy 33%. Potentially dangerous in the west of Sumatra in the vicinity of the Mentawai Islands - Siberut and Sipura, Indonesia, where is preparing the devastating earthquake with M8.4. In the coming years, this area will alternately go from a steady state in the volatile and back, with gradually increasing the expected magnitude earthquake. The closest precarious state will be in February-March 2009 M8.1, then the system will go and will be in steady state before the end of 2009.

P_K=33%

P_W=8%

Р=3%

Strong earthquake with a 7.3<Ms<7.8 by the end of this year is not expected. The probability of earthquakes in southern Sumatra on the entropy 1%, on a cumulative energy 24%, in the middle part of Sumatra likelihood of the entropy 24% and on the cumulative energy 65%. This indicates that the southern part of Sumatra in the coming years will be in seismically safe. But we should not forget that there could be no less dangerous moderate earthquake with M6.6-7.2.

P_K=65%

P_W=24%

Р=16%

The situation in the system are not dangerous. Strong earthquake with Ms>7.8 in the coming years is not expected. The probability of strong earthquake on the entropy 0.2% and on the cumulative energy 0.1%. In the future, potentially dangerous to be in the south-west of Java in 2016. Residents of the island of Java and Bali in the coming years, the disastrous earthquake with Ms>7.8 and tsunamis of local earthquakes are not threatened.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

Earthquakes with 6.9<M<7.8 is not expected. The situation in the system are not dangerous but fragile. The trajectory is the attractor. The probability of strong earthquake in the system now for the entropy 19% and on the cumulative energy 22%. Until the end of 2010 trajectory will be located near a zone of instability in the ocean 100 kilometers south of west Java. Here, perhaps with the M6.6 earthquake, no danger to the public. In mainland Java strong earthquake with Ms≥6.6 in the coming years are excluded. Residents of the islands of Java and Bali in the coming years, a strong earthquake with Ms>6.6 and tsunami no danger.

P_K=22%

P_W=19%

Р=4%

The situation in subsystems - west and east of Java. The probability of strong earthquake with 5.8≤Ms<6.6 increased in the west Java, is now expected earthquake with M=5.9, N=45-50 km. The likelihood of such events on the entropy 37% and on the cumulative energy 29%. If this earthquake will not happen until February, then in 2009 will be a revitalization of indicator-earthquakes of M5.0-5.6.

In the East Java situation is stable, there is no seismic danger. Residents of the islands of Java and Bali within the framework controlled region strong earthquake from 5.8≤Ms<6.6 (on the semblance of an earthquake Yogyakarta 2006) is not threatened.

P_K=29%

P_W=37%

Р=11%

P_K=21%

P_W=26%

Р=6%

The situation is not dangerous trends. A strong earthquake with 5.8≤Ms<7.2 in the coming years are excluded. The probability of strong earthquake in the system is equal to 0%. Residents of Mozambique in the coming years (until 2013) a strong earthquake with 5.8≤Ms<7.2 (on the semblance of an earthquake of February 22, 2006) is not threatened.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

The situation is not dangerous trends. A strong earthquake with M≥6.6 in Afghanistan and Pakistan are not expected.

Retrospective. The last major earthquake occurred October 29, 2008 (deaths of 166 people). On the basis of seismic entropy, retrospectively analyzing the energy and track diagrams, was able to explain this event. A feature of this earthquake was that a source at intervals of 12 hours there were two earthquakes, the first - M6.4, the second - M6.6. Before these events, the probability of strong earthquake in the system amounted to P=3.75% (on entropy Р_W=10.30, and the cumulative energy P_K=36.38%). Before the first earthquake track was under the attractor and had a deficit of cumulative energy. Immediately after the first quake track fell into attractor and probability of earthquakes sharply it grew to P=5.27% (on entropy Р_W=10.30, and the cumulative energy P_K=51.13%). In fact, after the first quake was prepared by an earthquake with M=6.6, which happened after 12 hours. You can take it that the first earthquake was trigger for a second. Generally double sources are the specifics of the tectonic zones in Pakistan and their prediction is very important for practical forecasting and reduce casualties.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

The situation is not dangerous. A strong earthquake with M≥7.5 is not expected.

Retrospective. The last devastating earthquake occurred recently, May 12, 2008 in China, Sychuan (69185 people have been killed). Retrospectively, using seismic entropy, we analyzed the possibility of prediction of this disaster. Difficulty consisted in the fact that according to our classification the revealed seismic system relates to those badly determined. Nevertheless, based on our experience, Sychuan catastrophe could have been predicted for two months. First, note that this event is regular, but is very rare and difficultly to predictable. It was prepared by the specific character of the development of seismic processes in Tibet during the last 58 years. The probability of strong earthquake in megasisteme in recent years was close to 99%.  In two months before the event the probability of strong earthquake in the subsystem was small, however, the value of entropy was large with a comparatively small cumulative energy. In other words, the earthquake was prepared, but needed a strong push. By this push, trigger, Sychuan earthquake was an earthquake Mart 20, 2008 M=7.3 in western China, situated at a distance of 2300 km from the future source! This earthquake, almost 2 months prior to catastrophe dated May 12, 2008, compensated the scarcity of indicator-earthquakes cumulative energy and was its kind forerunner. The probability of earthquake in the subsystem for two months before Sychuan catastrophe equal to 7.2% (on the entropy of 25% on a cumulative energy 29%), followed trigger increased 2.5 times - 16.38% (27% of entropy, and the cumulative energy 61%).

P_K=14%

P_W=1%

Р=0.1%

Area on the northeast Bay of Bengal (the bounding area of Myanmar with India, China and Bangladesh) we investigated in detail, since the seismologists count this region potentially dangerous for giant tsunamigenic earthquakes. Such earthquake and tsunami in the coastal zone of Myanmar to the scales of possible human victims and material losses can exceed Nicobar earthquake dated December 26, 2004. Here we have revealed two seismic systems Western (coastal area, Arakan) and Eastern Myanmar (Shan plateau), demarcated by fault of Sagaing, is refined the boundary of Burma micro-plate in the south.

А. SS Western of Myanmar.  SS Western Myanmar relates to badly determined according to our classification; therefore the quality of forecast here poor. We can make only comparative analysis of real situation in this system with other similar SS, using a property of self-similarity. Analysis shows that the track of the preparation of strong earthquake in the system Western Myanmar is developed with the relatively low values of cumulative energy. Track is not similar to preparation of the classical earthquakes of subduction zones. Track is similar to the preparation of southern California Kern Caunty earthquake 1952.07.21, M7.7 (White Wolf fault zone, reverse faulting, with a left-lateral component). So that above-mentioned  tsunamigenic mega-earthquake thus far are excluded.

Forecast of earthquakes from Ms≥7.5. In SS Western Myanmar it is already prepared and in 2009 is expected strong earthquake from M=7.7. The probability of earthquake is very high (Pk=97%, Pw=94% P=91%). It is dangerous in continental part of Arakan of the subduction zone Burma, in area of the north–south trending zone of Kaladan and Kabaw Faults. In the source of future earthquake the predominance of vertical displacement to the horizontal in relationship 60% to 40% is expected. Mechanism of the expected earthquake - reverse faulting, with a right-lateral component. In the hazardous zone of the forecasted earthquake falls near-boundary regions Bangladesh (Chittagong), India (Mizoram), Myanmar (Arakan) (Lat 21-23 deg N). According to our estimations the break must not reach the coastal zone therefore Tsunami is excluded.

В. SS Eastern Myanmar (Shan plateau, including Yunnan Province, China). Forecast of earthquakes from Ms≥7.5. Trajectory is located out of the attractor. Strong earthquake into Province of Yunnan, China, will be prepared by 2014, M7.5. The probability of strong earthquake now equal to zero.

Forecast of earthquakes from Ms≥7.0. On the Border Myanmar and Yunnan (China, in the region of Luxi, Mengdingjie) occurs the preparation of earthquake from M>7.0. Probability of earthquake 58% (Pk=84%, Pw=68%). If earthquake occurs soon its magnitude will be equal to 7.1. By 2014 the magnitude of expected earthquake will grow to 7.5, and source will migrate to the east, close to the devastating earthquake of 1970 Tongai, Yunnan Province, China.

C. Depending on the development of seismic situation in the system of Burma microplate, by 2011 the possible strong earthquake with M7.5 near Rangoon.

P_K=97%

P_W=94%

Р=91%

P_K=20%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

P_K=84%

P_W=68%

Р=58%

SS North-Eastern China. Seismoactive region on the northeast of China includes the capital Beijing and the industrial tightly populated provinces. This region is known to seismologists by the fact that here on February 4, 1975 occurred the destructive Haicheng earthquake M=7.3, which was successfully predicted by the Chinese seismologists (2041 dead, but they were rescued hundreds of thousands of lives). But on July 28, 1976 here occurred the catastrophic Tangshan earthquake M=7.8, which on the losses and the human victims is considered as the most devastating in the last 400 years (according to the different estimations it perished from 240000 to 600000 people). Revealed here SS northeastern China relates to badly determined according to our classification. For the analysis of seismic situation we carried out the comparative analysis of real situation in this system with other similar SS, using a property of self-similarity. After more than 32 years, on the basis of the method of seismic entropy it was possible to prove that the Haicheng earthquake was trigger and forerunner of the Tangshan earthquake.

A. Forecast of earthquakes from Ms≥7.8. At present earthquakes from Ms≥7.8 are not expected. The probability of earthquake on the entropy is higher than on the cumulative energy (Pk=15%, Pw=28% P=4%). Trajectory has a scarcity of cumulative energy therefore it is expected the making more active of indicator-earthquakes. Studies this system showed that historical earthquakes 1966 (M=7.0), 1969 (M=7.3) and 1975 (M=7.3) on NE of China for 10 years substantially raised the track of the preparation of strong earthquake from M=7.8, which with the great significance of entropy had a scarcity of cumulative energy. The Haicheng earthquake of 1975 was the latter in this series and therefore it is the trigger Of the Tangshan earthquake of 1976.

В. Forecast of earthquakes from Ms≥7.3. At present earthquakes from Ms≥7.3 are not expected, in spite of the high value of the probability of earthquake (Pk=70%, Pw=80% P=56%). Here also track has a scarcity of cumulative energy, which indicates the nearest making more active of indicator-earthquakes.

С. Forecast of earthquakes from Ms≥7.0.  At present on NE of China occurs the preparation of the earthquake  M=7.0. Analysis of the track  diagrams it shows that in the system in the first half of 2009 are expected the indicator-earthquakes with magnitudes 5.8-6.0 (let us recall that such earthquakes in densely populated China lead to the destruction and the human victims). Is most dangerous the West and the South of the province Hebei, the bounding area of the provinces Shandong and Henan, the coastal area of the province Jiangsu. After such indicator-earthquakes in the second-half of 2009 can be prepared strong earthquake with the magnitude M=7.0. Dangerous is potentially the region, situated W-SW from the Bohai sea (south of the province Hebei and the bounding area of the provinces Shandong and Henan). Probability P=73% (Pk=84%, Pw=87%).

P_K=15%

P_W=28%

Р=4%

P_K=70%

P_W=80%

Р=56%

P_K=84%

P_W=87%

Р=73%

SS Egypt-Israel.  Revealed here SS Egypt-Israel includes Sinai peninsula and transform-fault zone (Agaba-Levant faults), which is stretched from the Red Sea in the south to Syria on the north. It includes the seismoactive territories of Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The revealed here seismic system and subsystems, which respons to the strong earthquakes it relates to badly determined according to our classification. For their analysis we used the property of self-similarity. Are here known historical strong earthquakes (May 1202 and November 1759, M=7.5).

A. Forecast earthquakes from Ms≥7.3. At present earthquakes from Ms≥7.3 are not expected. The probability of strong earthquake is sufficiently high (Pk=87%, Pw=87% P=76%) but time to predict difficultly. Strong earthquake from Ms≥7.3 can be prepared by 2016 on the Levant fault. This period can approach taking into account possible passages in the catalog of historical earthquakes.

В. Forecast of earthquakes from Ms≥6.5. At present earthquakes from Ms≥6.6 are not expected, but occurs the preparation of earthquake from M=6.8. Probability of this earthquake now small P=0.2% (Pk=4%, Pw=6%). In 2012 is expected strong earthquake from M=6.8-7.0 most likely in the south Sinai in the Red Sea. Thus far are expected the indicator-earthquakes with M=5.0-5.3.

P_K=87%

P_W=87%

Р=76%

P_K=4%

P_W=6%

Р=0.2%

SS New Madrid. This SS includes seismic zones New Madrid and Wabash Valley, located in the border zone of the states Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Indiana (central area of USA). This anomalous intraplate seismoactive zone is known by the fact that in 1811 (on December 16, M7.3, M7.0) and 1812 (on January 23, M7.1 on February 7, M7.4) here occurred the flash of the cascade of devastating earthquakes. It is important to note that these events, which occurred in 2 monthly intervals closely each other, are interconnected, but they are the separate earthquakes, timed to the different branches of faults. At the beginning operated southwestern branch, then northeastern with the mechanisms of right strike-slip. These events as a result led to the thrust in the central segment, which is stretched transversely to first two. Nature of this seismic activity explains by the fact that here the earth's crust hides relict rift zone (Reelfoot of rift), which weakens the earth's crust and periodically it leads to accumulation and discharging of stresses. Now this zone is manifested in essence by the weak seismicity of М<4.0 but periodically proceed the moderate earthquakes with the magnitudes from 5 to 6, which present danger. It interests together with the forecast of these moderate earthquakes, seismologists, when here occurs strong earthquake from M>7.0 will be able it will be repeated the pattern of almost 200 summer remotenesses. Let us try to answer these questions on the basis of the method of seismic entropy.

 A. Forecast earthquakes from Мs≥7.0. At present earthquakes with Мs≥7.0 are not expected. Revealed SS New Madrid and its subsystems make it possible to restore and to describe the possible scenario of the cascade of devastating earthquakes 1811-1812 yrs. and to extrapolate them to the future. In contrast to other SS here (in intraplate SS) seismic processes weak and proceed considerably slower. As a result the process of the preparation of catastrophic earthquakes is extended by several centuries. On the language of the method of seismic entropy in the northern and southern subsystems of this system for a period of several centuries simultaneously occurred the preparation of two earthquakes from M=7.0-7.3. Track thus far with the high values of entropy had substantial low value of cumulative energy what is the consequence of the absence of earthquakes with 6.0<M<7.0. Three strong earthquakes 1811 and 1812 yrs. in two months substantially raised the track of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake in SS New Madrid, after completing the scarcity of cumulative energy they led on February 7, 1812 to the earthquake from M=7.4. At present the value of cumulative energy in the system it is equal to 14.0, and entropy - 16.8. With the present growth rate in the entropy only by 2060 the entropy will exceed value of 18, after which are possible the earthquakes with М>7.0. Because of the absence of earthquakes from M6.0-7.0, evidently the scenario of the cascade of earthquakes will be repeated after 2060, can change only time interval in 2 months.

В. Forecast earthquakes from Мs≥5.1 (Mb≥5.4). At present before 2036 earthquakes with Мs≥5.1 are not expected. Probability of this earthquake now small P=0.3% (Pk=41,7%, Pw=0.7%). By 2036 there can be prepared moderate earthquake with Mb=5.7.

P_K=42%

P_W=0.7%

Р=0.3%

SS Vrancea. This miniature SS has the sizes of 40x80 km and a depth of 180 km it is included the deep-focus (70-180 km) seismoactive zone of Vrancea in Rumania, where periodically occur strong earthquakes (on November 10, 1940, M7.7; on March 4, 1977, M7.4; on August 30, 1986, M7.1; on May 30, 1990, M6.9). These earthquakes are dangerous by the fact that can cause destruction and the victims not only in Romania, but also in the extensive territory of the countries of South-Eastern Europe. The seismic intensity from such deep-focus earthquake in Moscow can reach 5-6 balls. Taking into account the increased interest in this zone, we estimated times and magnitudes of the expected strong earthquakes on the basis of the method of seismic entropy.

A. Forecast earthquakes from М≥7.3. At present earthquakes from M≥7.3 are not expected. Track has sufficiently high values of cumulative energy and scarcity of entropy. With the present growth rate in the entropy deep-focus earthquake (H=80-110 km) with the magnitude of M=7.4 will be prepared by 2015. Probability of such earthquake now P=0.33% (Pk=14%, Pw=2.4%).

В. Forecast earthquakes from М≥6.1. At present earthquakes with 6.3<М<7.3 are not expected. The probability of earthquake from 6.1≤M<6.3 now high P=25% (Pk=40%, Pw=62%), but the state of track is steady. Most likely deep-focus earthquake from M=6.1 will occur by 2012 (possibly and earlier). 

P_K=14%

P_W=2.4%

Р=0.33%

P_K=40%

P_W=62%

Р=25%