The situation in the Armenian Upland seismic system remains critical. The preparation of the catastrophic earthquake in eastern Turkey is in the final stages.                /December 08, 2009/

                                                                                                          Update /March 02, 2010/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.2b. Above - the diagram of earthquakes with M>3.0 from October 1, 2009 to February 28, 2010 in SS Armenian Upland; below - cumulative energy of these earthquakes (vertical axis the logarithm of energy in Joule). On February 28 the cumulative energy is equal the energy of an earthquake with M=4.95.

Fig.2a. The weak seismicity in SS Armenian Upland from November 2009 to February 2010 according data of EMSC. Dotted line showed the region of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake covering the eastern segment of NAF. SS Armenian Upland is located within the framework white rectangle.

 

 

 

 

 

On the basis of the study of catastrophic earthquake dated December 26, 1939 in the east of Turkey, with more than 30000 deaths, we modelled the source of expected earthquake and the formation of the possible weak tsunami in the Black sea. Waves to 50 cm can be observed after 50 min. in Yalta, Sevastopol, Feodosiya, Novorossiysk and Tuapse (see NAF move01).

Fig.1. Fragment of track diagram SS Armenian Upland, increased 10 times. The trajectory of the preparation of strong earthquake (heavy red line) from M≥7.7 since 2000 on top went around all points of instability and only to the middle of 2009 it approached the unstable region on the eastern segment of NAF.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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SS  East of TURKEY, ARMENIA

Large cities: Erzurum, Erzincan, Malatya, Van, Trabzon, Tokat, Kars, Bingel, Gyumri, Yerevan.

Seismicity is caused by interaction of the Arabian plate with the Eurasian, as a result by which occurs orogenesis and extrusion of Anatolian micro-plate to the West.

Last devastating earthquakes Spitak on December 7, 1988, M=7.0 (with the epicenter in the northwest of Armenia, 40000 peop. it perished) and The Erzincan earthquake on March 13, 1992, M=6.8 (in the east Turkey, it perished 1000 peop.).

 

 

 

MONITORING AND FORECAST

SS ARMENIAN UPLAND

Ìs≥6.6

   In a communication dated 10 September 2009 stated that the East of Turkey, on the eastern segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) of a strong earthquake with Ìs≥7.7 could happen any day over several months. Let's try on the basis of available material to clarify the possible time interval realization of this disaster. Fig.1 shows a fragment of the track diagram of the SS Armenian Upland, magnified 10 times. It is seen that the trajectory (red bold line) since 2000, the top rounds of all the instability point attractor, and only in the second half of 2009, close to the instability region corresponding to the eastern segment of North Anatolian fault. This region of instability on the track diagram extrapolated straight line:   

                                                               Ê=0.857W +0.560      for  east of  NAF.

   Two jumps of track on Fig.1 occurred because of two earthquakes of  01.05.2003 Bingel (M6.4) and 07.09.2009 Caucasus (M6.1). According to this diagram the most dangerous period is fallen on the period December 2009 - February 2010. Diagram shows that the forecasted earthquake in the epicenter zone it will not have strong foreshocks. By the operational forerunner (for several hours before the expected catastrophe) there can be earthquake with the magnitude of  Ì~5.0 on the eastern segment of NAF.

   For this purpose since October 2009 we conduct the detailed monitoring of weak seismicity from M>3.0 in SS Armenian Upland in order to reveal the process of the preparation of earthquake with the magnitude of M=5.0. This analysis (according to the data on Febrary 28, 2010) is given on Fig.2a,b. Let us first of all note that since August 1, 2009 on the eastern segment of NAF (broken region) is observed the gap for weak seismicity from M>3.5. On February 28, 2010 cumulative energy of the weak earthquakes, which occurred in SS since October 1, 2009 is equal energy of one earthquake from M=4.95 (in early December it was M=4.7). Taking into account special features SS this weak seismicity can give birth to earthquake with the magnitude of M=5.0. The analysis of weak seismicity shows that in October - November occurred the consolidation SS, a certain calm after which began. In December-January-February frequency of earthquake increased, and their concentration is to the south-west of the SS in eastern Turkey. On February 21 there was critical day, in SS occurred 15 weak earthquakes from M>3.0, of them 5 from 3.6<M<4.5, one from M=3.7 on the eastern segment of NAF. But thus far it carried.